A recurring theme pervades from television news to Facebook chatter: Republicans are going to retake the House, and very well could retake the Senate, too.
Sure they are. And a Category Five hurricane is going to blast straight through the Narrows and wipe New York completely off the map. But neither event is guaranteed to happen in 2010.
Republicans were not going to lose on Stimulus. They were not going to lose on Justice Sotomayor. They had defeat of Health Care Reform sewed up. There was no way that there was going to be any re-regulation on Wall Street.
If one goes back two years to the primaries, Hillary Clinton was going to be the Democratic nominee. Six years ago, Ryan had been leading in the polls for Paul Simon’s old Senate seat. In other words, we have been hearing about Barack Obama’s imminent doom since he stood up and smoked everyone at the Democratic Convention in 2004.
Six predictions of impending failure have six wins for Barack Obama. It would seem foolish to bet against the President with this much time on the clock.
President Obama is sitting as low on the polls as he ever has. He’s still twenty points up on Bush’s lowest point. He has kept a low profile all summer. This is classic Obama. He’s running the Rope-a-Dope on the Republicans.
For those who may not have had the frustrating pleasure of watching Muhammad Ali fight, the Rope-a-Dope works thusly. Ali would lean back on the ropes and let an opponent pound, pound, and pound some more. Ali was a cerebral fighter. He studied his opponent’s best moves, let the opponent tire himself out, and in the last two rounds, Ali would knock his opponent into the middle of next Tuesday.
At the moment, as the old southernism goes, the Tea Party and the Republicans are (defecating) in high cotton. Someone may wish to remind them where the McCain-Palin ticket stood in the polls on Labor Day, 2008.
The right has been going to the well repeatedly. There is a strong likelihood that a large component of the electorate which wasn’t quite sick of the Tea Party six months ago may have had its fill of screaming white geezers. The party which has been quiet has a strategic advantage.
Democrats will discuss the economy and jobs. James Carville is sitting around, and James Carville is going to be brought back into the game. Nobody has ever crafted as effective a campaign based on the economy like him in the last 50 years. Carville would have been first choice a long time ago, but he was very highly annoyed.
They also have Robert Reich, Clinton’s Treasury secretary, biding his time as a talking head on CNN and MSNBC. As far as the economy and Domestic policy go, the Clinton years are remembered fondly. There are even a few conservatives out there who would be willing to trade places with that woman, Miss Lewinski, if it would reboot the economy to 1998.
This is where the Clinton card gets played. Obama has the Clinton economic team available, and they have very strong credibility, because the economy was strong. The administration is smart enough to realize that it is tough to clean up eight years of mess in less than two. The message has to be Dubya versus Bubba.
The independent center is not going to hear much about the following from Democrats over the next two months: the environment, unless it is linked to green jobs; immigration; LGBT rights; or security (unless it is connected to jobs, jobs, jobs.) This will be extremely frustrating to Liberals and Progressives, but it is also pragmatic. The Democratic Party is not in a position of being the Vegans at the barbecue without alienating the coalition moderates who helped bring them to power.
The base understands that their objectives will be completely and perpetually screwed if Republicans get back into power. It would be the equivalent of choosing Lindsay Lohan for a designated driver.
President Obama’s desires for the next two years are going to be extremely dependent upon voters who have traditionally been more apathetic. Obama’s organization has been strong in keeping a connection to his supporters over the last couple of years. This crucial body may pull the President’s bacon out of the fire in November.
They may very well be the left jab that the Republican Party does not see coming.
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I hope you're right Gil. I was thinking that with all the publicity about the Republican taking back the House, it just might make those becoming complacent or lazy who otherwise would stay home, to get up and go vote. There are more Dems than there are Repukes but who do you think would go out and vote? Those of us who don't want a repeat of the GOP taking back the House can all get up out of that chair and vote! We might not like everything the Dems are doing but the consequences of the GOP coming back into power should scare all of us to pay attention and vote! Let the polls be a motivator for us to out and do something!
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