08 February 2008

That was quick!

That primary season went faster than Britney Spears to an embarassing situation. In what seems like two weeks, the slates are down to a presumptive nominee and a two person celebrity death match. Oh, nineteen days...that's a whole lot more than two weeks.

The Republicans have done the smartest things in the last couple of news cycles. Losing Romney was the best thing for the GOP to have happen. His presentation left a lot to be desired. Romney's Achilles Heel was front-loading his discourse with problems as opposed to solutions, and allowing the voter to infer the problem.

When Romney articulated the problem before articulating the solution, he conveyed an image of dour intransigence, which was fundamentally opposed to his record in public service. The honestly intransigent Huckabee and McCain managed to appear as consistent through a focus upon their more human characters.

The funny thing about Huckabee is that he seems to be genuinely decent while spewing some of the most hateful rhetoric in the campaign. However, one may infer his nature as being more kind owing to the response he gave to Romney during one of the debates..."I think we're a better country than that," defending his stance on in-state tuition for students who were brought to Arkansas without documents.

This may be a good point for President Bush to take the immigration plate off the table. Indeed, it may be the only hope that his party has.

Bush has the power to make a presidential pardon, which could move the issue off Senator McCain's back. Were Bush to offer a pardon to undocumented aliens, he could trump the hope of a broad-based amnesty from the Democrats.

This is a little Wizard of Oz for some people, but Bush could offer a conditional pardon for the crime of jumping the border, with a date of arrival, a criminal assessment, and a US citizen willing to vouch for the individual case. He requests a bill approving the placement of personnel in the Customs and Immigration Service whose first mission is the processing of paperwork before being placed on patrol on the border. An executive order could direct the DHS to process all applications under the conditional pardon.

Then anything that messes up in Congress could be blamed on the Democrats. Of course, doing such would require courage, which seems to be in limited supply in the Bush Administration, and precludes progress until a change in administration.

The Hillary Clinton candidacy is turning into a celebrity train wreck par excellence. All she needs to make things complete is an endorsement from Lindsay Lohan. Hillary's broke, out of momentum, and under the delusion that she can win a national election. All it's going to take is for Barack Obama to run the table in the next couple of weeks for us to see her have a total meltdown.

Obama is poised to run the table, too. He's been terrific in caucuses, and we have a few of those coming up in the next couple of weeks. Obama could not wish for a better selection of primaries, Maryland, DC, Virginia, and Louisiana have robust African-American populations and he has managed to connect with voters beyond the African-American community.

But there is a danger here as well. The early resolution of the Republican contest has put a population of Republicans into play as spoilers. It is not entirely unbelieveable to forsee people of ill will and bad intent moving to the Democratic primaries and casting votes for Clinton as the less electable candidate.

Time still remains for that scenario in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Democrats would be well advised to lobby Senator Clinton for withdrawal. The question of whether America is ready for a candidate with a non-traditional background has been answered, and the answer is that we are ready for an outstanding candidate from anywhere.

Mrs. Clinton may be disposed to blame her rejection on her gender. That is the cheap cop-out. The fact is that America is unlikely to ever be ready for Mrs. Clinton. Oprah Winfrey could campaign successfully on her own behalf if she chose to, as could Condoleeza Rice. The issue is not so much what is beyond a candidate's control (such as race or gender) as what the candidate can control (such as presentation.)

Senator Clinton's arguments for experience fall away. Richard Nixon was a congressman and a Vice President before being elected President. Experience is no guarantee of a great Chief Executive.

However, Senator Clinton is in a position to open the doors for her party if she steps back from a presidential campaign. She could be in a position of power broker in Washington, and able to wield more authority than she could as president owing to her connections and time in the Senate. How many terms does Ted Kennedy have left in him? That is a question that foresees a void that Hillary could own.

The longer she stands and allows the Republicans to rally and regroup while the Democratic house is divided, the more she hurts her position in her party, and the party's opportunity to succeed in November.

From Hillary's chaos comes Republicans giving orders.

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