FIRST 2008 ELECTION PREDICTIONS!!!

A short postcard based on what I see behind the cheesy plastic Wandering Gentile Keyboard.

Barring any major scandals, the Democrats will keep both houses of Congress. America has a bad case of Republican Fatigue, and it's getting worse.

The Republican presidential contenders are McCain and Giuliani. McCain has been too much of a hawk on the Iraq war from too far away in Arizona. He has great credibility on matters of war, but he's also going to be 72 by the time the election comes around. Giuliani, on the other hand, is a few years younger and has the credibility of having been the Mayor of 9/11.

Look for McCain to repeat his experiences from 2000, i.e., strong early then fading. Romney is the guy who will pull the conservative base, and he's a mortal lock for Veep.

The Democrats have some issues. Hillary can screw the whole thing up if she stays too long. Just because America has Republican Fatigue, doesn't mean we aren't just as tired of her. The Senator from New York has all of her husband's baggage, and none of his charm. She is about as likable as a scorpion in your underwear, and her voice is more painful.

There are some other Democrats out there, but there are only two worth mentioning. Barack Obama and Bill Richardson matter.

Dennis Kucinich seems to be sincere, and probably a decent guy. He also used to be the Mayor of Cleveland, a city which the rest of the country would be unlikely to miss if it fell into Lake Erie. In fact, his stewardship of Cleveland may have hastened the day when Lake Erie reclaims Cleveland, completely, thank goodness. Kucinich doesn't matter.

Tom Vilsack is or was the Governor of Iowa. You don't see a lot of people clamoring for a vacation in Des Moines, the Whitest city in North America. I get it. Vilsack wants us to remember that Iowa is still there and has many good things, none of which come to mind. What Iowa has is corn, rolling hills, Radar O' Reilly, and the place where Buddy Holly died.

Vilsack doesn't matter, and frankly, when one's state is best known for who died there, there is an image problem that must be dealt with. He's gone after the caucuses.

John Edwards is thinking about trying again. It's not the smartest thing he could do. He's the Democrats' Dan Quayle. Again, John Edwards appears to be a nice guy but he has the gravitas of The Cookie Monster. All Edwards is going to do is make people think of John Kerry, a man who looks like he's getting a digital prostate exam while he's doing windsurfing.

Go home, John Edwards, and watch the Bobcats. Set up some speaking engagements. Your 15 minutes are up, and 1982 called asking for their haircut back.

Al Gore? Yeah. Get an endorsement from Frank Zappa and then we'll talk.

Now we get to the ones who matter. Barack Obama is the perfect candidate. We'll shy away from Bidenesque adjectives, and go toward some stuff that Matters.

Obama is as charismatic as Reagan and Bill Clinton. That counts toward landslide and mandate. It is not an issue of his backstory or his politics. Senator Obama connects on a gut level that makes people feel as if they have known him forever. He's exciting to watch, and thoroughly in tune with a broad segment of the voting population.

Stated briefly, Senator Obama is a mainstream candidate who happens to qualify as black.

That separates him from a legion of African-American candidates who focused their campaigns solely on appeal to voters in the ghettoes of major cities. Barack Obama knows where the mainstream is, and does not maginalize himself by focusing on the South Side of Chicago and East St. Louis while turning his back on Rantoul, Evanston, and Carbondale.

Barring a cataclysmic event of some description, Senator Obama is the likely Democratic nominee. Hillary Clinton has a lot of fight in her, but something inside of anyone who has watched her knows that one way or another, she will put herself out of contention.

Even odds on Senator Clinton having an early season meltdown a la Howard Dean. Howard Dean had the illusion that all of America is like Vermont; Senator Clinton is under the illusion that New York is close to the mainstream of America. Both illusions are false. The bravado that serves Senator Clinton in New York is just going to enfuriate everything between the coasts.

Bill Richardson matters, and (amusingly) on a Dave Chappelle level. Governor Richardson is Hispanic. Dave Chappelle once said that if he were to be the first Black President, he would appoint a Hispanic Vice-President. On a higher level, the Dems need candidates from Flyover country, and New Mexico is about as flyover as it gets without being Iowa. Richardson brings executive experience from a purple state to questions about Obama's lack of past executive position on the ticket.

Now! The two tickets as seen from 21 months out!

Republican Presidential Nominee: Rudy Giuliani (NY).

Republican Vice Presidential Nominee: Mitt Romney (MA).

Democratic Presidential Nominee: Barack Obama (IL).

Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee: Bill Richardson (NM).

And a quick thought: Giuliani could squeak one out over Hillary. Obama is a landslide, the question is when it's going to happen.