Of course Sarah Palin is running for President.
For all of Palin's vast inadequacies, she does one thing with exceptional competence: campaign. Please do not confuse this with actual capability, intelligence, or the capacity to guide even the smallest jurisdiction in a direction which will lead to prosperity or providence. She runs because she has been running for the last 30 years.
A marathon runner has the physical fitness to be the Center of a soccer team. That runner may not have the ball-handling skills that a pudgy, chain-smoking roofer from Tegucigalpa has, though. Endurance and speed may bring the opportunity for more goals, but without someone with ball-handling skill, all it means is a lot of running around on one end of the field. Not a lot of goals will be scored.
It is time to watch Palin the marathonner. In this realm, she shines. Politics requires endurance. If one tires out the opposition, one can cruise right up to the goal and tap the ball in.
Endurance is one tactic which works a majority of the time. It does not work on the greats, because they have endurance too. Thousands of Soccer players fell trying to wear Pele out, and just when it looked as if Pele were finished, he bicycled the ball into the goal.
Barack Obama is the Pele of American Presidential Politics, maybe with a little bit of Beckham's curving kick to go along for good measure.
In other words, Obama puts points on the scoreboard.
Mrs. Palin is running, and she's looking for the Republican nomination. The one person who will be most drastically affected by this is Mitt Romney, because he will be the frontrunner until maybe ten seconds after Palin officially announces. Michelle Bachmann will be annoyed, but she is not going to do much besides pout. Herman Cain will be a bit fussy, but frankly, he's the wrong color to ever pull more than 15% of the Republican electorate.
The announcement will be later than sooner. This is the slowest period in American politics, and Palin is an adept campaigner. The time will be used to shore up the huge negatives Palin has with independents and moderates, and give a strong look at which of the lackluster candidates for the nomination as to who would make the best Vice-Presidential nominee.
Palin's short list should include, but not be limited to anyone already declared. A guess says that she may pick a running mate from a traditionally Democratic state-Chris Christie, Paul LePage, and Michelle Bachmann would add regional strength without losing appeal to her base in the deep south.
It will be asked if Palin can win the nomination. That question is akin to asking if the sun will rise tomorrow.
Palin, for her lack of goodwill among moderates and independents, is still considered to be "accomplished" by the base of the Republican Party. One other factor is not popping up that may well prove to be the Republicans' downfall in 2012.
It does not appear that the Democrats will present a serious primary challenge to President Obama next year. That leverages a number of primary voters which might be caught in an internecine debate about the direction of the Democratic Party to pursue a challenge which would make for a compelling contrast of ideas and realizations.
No Soccer fan wants to watch meaningless contest. But people who care little for the sport might enjoy a championship match involving the rivalry (think Red Sox and Yankees with violence) between Manchester United and Liverpool.
Democrats have the chance to bring up the most despised rival in Sarah Palin if she is on the ballot.
Republicans have more to lose in the near future from a Palin candidacy than gain. Palin's endorsement, along with identity as part of the Tea Party, managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in at least half a dozen mid-term contests last year. The paleoconservatism of the quasipopulist Tea Party movement found little traction outside of the deep south.
More moderate populations are expressing a deep buyers remorse for movement candidates like Rick Scott, John Kasich, and Scott Walker. A Palin candidacy has the chance to make those contrasts much clearer.
In the long run, Republicans would be better served with a Palin candidacy now as part of a long-term restructuring to bring the party closer to the middle where elections are won and lost. It is territory where Democrats dwelled for the period from late 1979 to the middle of 1992. Without some sort of outreach to the middle, the Republican Party is doomed by demographics as well as policy.
The age and ethnicity of the current Republican voter is well over 40 and overwhelmingly white. Educational attainment is also inferior to that of those preferring Democrats. Income levels and net worth are metrics leading to a conclusion that the Republican party as we know it will not survive much past 2020, if at all.
Republican leadership knows this. This is why a Palin candidacy for the nomination will succeed. An explicit show of support empowers the ability to jettison the component which provides little value to continued success. There is no longer an ability to survive on smaller pieces of pie. They now have to make more pie.
And the fastest way to do that will be to get Sarah Palin away from the oven.
For all of Palin's vast inadequacies, she does one thing with exceptional competence: campaign. Please do not confuse this with actual capability, intelligence, or the capacity to guide even the smallest jurisdiction in a direction which will lead to prosperity or providence. She runs because she has been running for the last 30 years.
A marathon runner has the physical fitness to be the Center of a soccer team. That runner may not have the ball-handling skills that a pudgy, chain-smoking roofer from Tegucigalpa has, though. Endurance and speed may bring the opportunity for more goals, but without someone with ball-handling skill, all it means is a lot of running around on one end of the field. Not a lot of goals will be scored.
It is time to watch Palin the marathonner. In this realm, she shines. Politics requires endurance. If one tires out the opposition, one can cruise right up to the goal and tap the ball in.
Endurance is one tactic which works a majority of the time. It does not work on the greats, because they have endurance too. Thousands of Soccer players fell trying to wear Pele out, and just when it looked as if Pele were finished, he bicycled the ball into the goal.
Barack Obama is the Pele of American Presidential Politics, maybe with a little bit of Beckham's curving kick to go along for good measure.
In other words, Obama puts points on the scoreboard.
Mrs. Palin is running, and she's looking for the Republican nomination. The one person who will be most drastically affected by this is Mitt Romney, because he will be the frontrunner until maybe ten seconds after Palin officially announces. Michelle Bachmann will be annoyed, but she is not going to do much besides pout. Herman Cain will be a bit fussy, but frankly, he's the wrong color to ever pull more than 15% of the Republican electorate.
The announcement will be later than sooner. This is the slowest period in American politics, and Palin is an adept campaigner. The time will be used to shore up the huge negatives Palin has with independents and moderates, and give a strong look at which of the lackluster candidates for the nomination as to who would make the best Vice-Presidential nominee.
Palin's short list should include, but not be limited to anyone already declared. A guess says that she may pick a running mate from a traditionally Democratic state-Chris Christie, Paul LePage, and Michelle Bachmann would add regional strength without losing appeal to her base in the deep south.
It will be asked if Palin can win the nomination. That question is akin to asking if the sun will rise tomorrow.
Palin, for her lack of goodwill among moderates and independents, is still considered to be "accomplished" by the base of the Republican Party. One other factor is not popping up that may well prove to be the Republicans' downfall in 2012.
It does not appear that the Democrats will present a serious primary challenge to President Obama next year. That leverages a number of primary voters which might be caught in an internecine debate about the direction of the Democratic Party to pursue a challenge which would make for a compelling contrast of ideas and realizations.
No Soccer fan wants to watch meaningless contest. But people who care little for the sport might enjoy a championship match involving the rivalry (think Red Sox and Yankees with violence) between Manchester United and Liverpool.
Democrats have the chance to bring up the most despised rival in Sarah Palin if she is on the ballot.
Republicans have more to lose in the near future from a Palin candidacy than gain. Palin's endorsement, along with identity as part of the Tea Party, managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in at least half a dozen mid-term contests last year. The paleoconservatism of the quasipopulist Tea Party movement found little traction outside of the deep south.
More moderate populations are expressing a deep buyers remorse for movement candidates like Rick Scott, John Kasich, and Scott Walker. A Palin candidacy has the chance to make those contrasts much clearer.
In the long run, Republicans would be better served with a Palin candidacy now as part of a long-term restructuring to bring the party closer to the middle where elections are won and lost. It is territory where Democrats dwelled for the period from late 1979 to the middle of 1992. Without some sort of outreach to the middle, the Republican Party is doomed by demographics as well as policy.
The age and ethnicity of the current Republican voter is well over 40 and overwhelmingly white. Educational attainment is also inferior to that of those preferring Democrats. Income levels and net worth are metrics leading to a conclusion that the Republican party as we know it will not survive much past 2020, if at all.
Republican leadership knows this. This is why a Palin candidacy for the nomination will succeed. An explicit show of support empowers the ability to jettison the component which provides little value to continued success. There is no longer an ability to survive on smaller pieces of pie. They now have to make more pie.
And the fastest way to do that will be to get Sarah Palin away from the oven.
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