As the GOP Turns

It looks like the Elephant Party is getting a little bit nervous about their prospects. One feels a bit of schaudefreude while watching. One also suspects that he will get over it.

The first thing to remember is that the Republican Party will not be more popular at any point this year than they are right now. At the moment, this is their peak, and they're still hanging within a point or two of a fifty-fifty split on their best issues. This is not a bad sign: it is a harbinger of inevitable doom.

Things are not improving. There are a couple of hundred-hour cycle news stories going right now which look particularly bad, like the large sex club expense, the telephone porn line listed as a GOP donation number, and some not-so-behind the scenes infighting between different factions of the party. The Republicans are on the eve of self-destruction.

Problem number one: the most visible ideologues are quickly becoming irrelevant. Limbaugh is dismissed as an elderly pedophile with erectile dysfunction. Hannity is serving as apologist for domestic terrorists like Timothy McVeigh. Beck may be recalled to Planet Crying Psycho at any moment. The House Minority Whip, Boner Boehner has had a public meltdown on television. Policy is rapidly conforming to Sarah Palin, who does not work or play well with conservatives who are not radicalized.

Problem number two: radicalized conservatives are closing upon the date when they may abandon the Republican party. This is slowly moving toward probability. Some of the most worthy objectives of the Tea Party movement are being drowned out by factions which have co-opted to find a market for prejudiced, self defeating propaganda.

The disconnect will come. Laudable objectives like a balanced budget, and greater individual freedom will begin to conflict with those who would prefer dictatorial powers to enforce their vision of an orderly society. Participants who are sincere about libertarian principles will become disenchanted with factions espousing totalitarian authority in individual matters.

That notwithstanding, without an industry offering unlimited resources to provide venues and media coverage, the majority of tea party supporters will drift away. They may be gone as early as June, inflated participation numbers, Glenn Beck, and all.

Problem number three: President Obama won the game he was supposed to lose. Does anyone else remember the comment that Health Care Reform could be Obama's Waterloo? Well, it was closer to right than anyone thought...with the possible exception of President Obama. He knew his presidency was on the line. Republicans thought it was a game of chance.

Obama was playing a game of skill, say, chess. He won. Obama was also using his board, his pieces, and his rules. Barack Obama is extremely risk averse, and he really hates to lose. This makes him extremely dangerous as an opponent, and pretty much nearly impossible to beat.

Republicans could have been a bit more observant about the President's character. Instead of giving the President his Waterloo, the GOP may well have found theirs.

Watch the short term. President Obama will find a way to commandeer one key rhetorical point belonging to Republicans before the election. A possibility may be found in the post from 14 July, 2009 Cap and Death or Cake and Trade. If he takes the tax cut or national security ball from the Republicans, they can expect a long time out in the woods.

That would be called Checkmate. The President is unlikely to pussy-foot around in dealing with the Republicans in the near term.

Then watch for a screaming turn to the left on 21 January, 2013.