Clinton Campaign Death Watch!

As the Democratic primaries wind their way through the last few states and territories, Senator Clinton is becoming more and more evocative of a four-year-old who has suffered an "accident" and being required by a normally permissive parent to prematurely depart a birthday party.

"Well, I'm winning with blue collar whites in the rust belt."

UPDATE- Mrs. Clinton is not winning the long term support of blue collar whites so much as Rush Limbaugh is; as Limbaugh has since the portly pundit became a staple of midday radio. We have a term for blue collar whites of poor educational attainment back in Georgia-REPUBLICANS.

Yes, I am aware that Jeff Foxworthy has made a career of another term. The amusing Mr. Foxworthy and your Wandering Gentile share a hometown and a birthday, and if that joker starts driving a truck, my life is going to be much more awkward.

The premise that Senator Clinton has made great inroads with a population that has, heretofore, despised her with the same passion reserved for undocumented aliens, homosexuals, Islam, and Quaker State motor oil, is beyond pathetic. Nobody actually believes that Hillary is going to mount up on a four-wheel ATV, dressed like an enthusiastic Melissa Etheridge fan, to spend an afternoon sucking down Genessee beer while trying to bust a cap in Bambi's tuchas.

In fact the most outdoorsy activity imaginable for Senator Clinton involves a short unpleasant visit to a suburban petting zoo, closely followed by a whole-body dousing in Germ-X gel. Mainly because Bambi sneezed.

One suspects that Mrs. Clinton prefers the outdoors to be 35,000 feet or so under her behind for the vast majority of the distance between, say New York and Los Angeles. Let's estimate that distance as Newark Liberty to John Wayne-Ontario.

The idea that Clinton is more likely to deliver Pennsylvania or Ohio based on disproportionate turnout in rural areas by voters who have historically been just a bit less tolerant than Botha is risible. The Portly Pundit spent the greater portion of his time exhorting his vast flannel-and-camouflage clad audience to cast primary votes for Clinton, from 29 February on.

Indeed, the Portly Pundit agreed that Obama is a more formidable nemesis for John McCain, and puts the interests of self-proclaimed conservatives in peril of being left in the cold in November. Senator Clinton, from the viewpoint of a significant component where Limbaugh's audience overlaps with genuine bigots, is at least white.

The more telling lesson from North Carolina is that the experience of several southern states was repeated. Senator Obama has made more complete connections with white voters in the Deep South than he has in the Rust Belt. Southern whites are fundamentally more comfortable with diversity from living in a world where African-Americans have earned affluence and authority.

Senator Clinton's margin of victory in the Pennsylvania primary came from the fifty smallest counties in the state. At first one thinks, holy crow, fifty counties, until a quick check of census data shows that the same counties account for only about a third of the state's population. The urbanized two-thirds of the population went for Obama.

A quick check of the numbers suggests that a loss of Clinton supporters may tilt the state to McCain, but there is no way that Pennsylvania can be won without strong turnout from Philadelphia. It. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. Ohio's results followed a similar pattern, and as bad as the situation is in Cleveland, Ohio is not going blue without the Mistake by the Lake.

But Obama's greatest strength is in the South. No Democrat has gotten to the White House without a strong showing in the South since 1948, when Strom Thurmond split the Dixiecrats off from Truman.

If I am a superdelegate, am I going to bet on the tepid embrace of conservative rural whites in the North, or the fervor of a population that has been underrepresented in presidential politics? When one sees the large pluralities of enthusiastic African-American voters in the Deep South, the point becomes clear.

Senator Clinton has the possibility of pulling out a tight race against Senator McCain. This is the same pattern that cost the Democratic party the last two elections. Had Senator Clinton run in 2004, there was the potential for us to discuss her second-term options today. The Democrats, however, manage to find candidates who are somehow less compelling or charismatic than the Republican.

Think about McGovern, Carter in '80, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry. Now consider Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Which candidate of the two is most likely to be included with John Kennedy and Bill Clinton as successful? One suspects that Barack Obama may be a Swahili term meaning massive mother-lovin' landslide.

Hillary, you're getting a time out when you get home. The time out isn't for having an "accident," but for acting out at Barack's party. When you finish your punishment, you will be expected to come back over and apologize to the Obamas for your behavior.

The Democratic party expects it.