http://youtu.be/H32uGah63S4
He's back...he's vlogging...and he's worldwide! Gil Gillon skewers the headlines.
He's back...he's vlogging...and he's worldwide! Gil Gillon skewers the headlines.
20 June 2011
16 June 2011
Obama calls Pakistan!
A dramatic recreation of the call to Pakistani military command about the operation to remove Osama bin Laden. Many thanks to Hijastra (la menor) for her flawless camera work.
http://youtu.be/WMCYU7L1OVU
http://youtu.be/WMCYU7L1OVU
14 June 2011
Debate Impressions
If one has a Republican friend or acquaintance, be nice and don't make many loud noises this morning. Last night's debacle in New Hampshire was enough to provoke the most committed, teetotaling Republican to down a fifth of Jim Beam, straight and hot.
Let's get the candidates who have absolutely no chance off the table first. They may be around for the next seven months or so, but once the buses leave South Carolina, they will be gone.
Herman Cain is a condescending jerk who has a bunch of ideas, and absolutely no idea how to make them work in the context of Government. His skill set requires the absolute authority of a business executive, not a contentious Congress. Cain is one bad interview from gone. He's smug, arrogant, and the wrong color to get any traction with the full Republican electorate.
Ron Paul is a great cult figure, but that is exactly what he will remain. His greatest obstacle is that he speaks the language of his cult. The rest of us are sitting there listening to the theme from The Twilight Zone going through our heads. He's not going away, but he is unlikely to connect with more than the ten to fifteen percent of the Republican Party that he already holds.
Rick Santorum has one major problem which will not go away: he was thrown out by the voters in purple Pennsylvania. The Keystone State leans slightly blue, but you would be hard pressed to know it because they will pick some of the most conservative candidates known to God or man. If Santorum could not hold Pennsylvania, how in the world does he expect to hold Ohio or Florida? He should run out of money before long.
Tim Pawlenty has more than one issue which will not go away. He has a competitor from his home state in Michelle Bachmann. He looks enough like Rick Santorum that their respective wives could view the photograph and ask, "What's wrong with this photo of my husband?" By screwing with Romney, he has tinkled in the Rotarian Republicans' corn flakes. And he is almighty dull. He might last until Super Tuesday as the non-Mormon version of Romney.
The scariest moment your Wandering Gentile had while watching the debate was looking at Newt Gingrich and thinking, good Lord, he's the best one up there. His answers were comparatively clear and articulate. He showed a sense of having an idea of how to do things. Hell, Gingrich was Clinton's tough old adversary, and almost worthy of nostalgia.
Newt Gingrich also sounds like a capon being strangled, and Romney does competent equally well.
Mitt Romney looked better. He was clear, concise, articulate, and he is blessed with one of the better speaking voices in a party filled with men who sound as if they are waiting for puberty. He is a little bit less dull than Pawlenty, who remains his closest competitor on the issues. He was the best communicator on the stage on 13 June.
Michelle Bachmann was the other candidate who mattered. With her unofficial declaration as a candidate, she slapped the elephant in the room in the tusks. The elephant in the room is Sarah Palin.
Palin will be the shadow over any candidate on the stage until she formally declares her decision. Her name recognition exceeds that of Mitt Romney. Palin has a national apparatus in place waiting for her to jump in, and by avoiding the early debates, she is finally listening to the wisest advice she could get: Better to be silent and considered to be a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
The last thing Sarah Palin needs right now is a lucky punch from a second tier candidate that lays her candidacy on the ground. The only ones who could get that in might be Gingrich or Santorum. In spite of their being insufferable, the two of them are also much smarter than Governor Palin. Santorum and his ideological twin Bachmann have the most to gain by the absence of Palin. They are similarly paleoconservative in philosophy, and Bachmann has an outside chance of winning the nomination compared to Romney.
What one should watch for in the short term of this most off of off-years follows.
There will be attrition in the very near term of candidates with little or no traction. Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum do not appear to have very strong campaigns and may not make it to Iowa. The heat and light Pawlenty needs to grow in Minnesota will be consumed by Michelle Bachmann competing for much of the same supporters.
Ron Paul's supporters will be a spoiler, and will likely go to ABR, i.e., anyone but Romney.
If Michelle Bachmann gains traction over the next three months, she will serve as Palin's surrogate. That is all Michelle Bachmann will ever be. She lacks adequate name recognition, and she is unlikely to build a national base beyond those who would have written Palin in, anyway.
Look for Palin to get in late, possibly as late as December 1. This keeps her out of debates where she has always done poorly, but leaves her viable in the Iowa caucuses. Michelle Bachmann holds the enthusiasm of Iowa congressman Steve King, which puts Tim Pawlenty at a huge disadvantage.
Mitt Romney will continue as the moderate alternative to Bachmann Palin overdrive. The fatal error that Romney's campaign will make is that he will continue to run to the right. Romney's problem is that he is not credible as a paleoconservative, not if he had a successful career achieving statewide office in Massachusetts. Indeed, the waning support for the tea parties indicates that he would have a chance as a moderate in the general election.
However, in order to get to the general election, one must cater to the party's base. And that base will prefer someone with a better set of credentials as a Conservative, be it Bachmann, or more likely, Palin. Mitt Romney would be well served by campaigning for the Vice-Presidency, because Governor Palin has a history of not bearing up well under scrutiny from the national press.
The future of the Republican Party will be dependent upon the strength of bringing moderates into the fold.
It shall be seen if they remain to do so in 2016.
Let's get the candidates who have absolutely no chance off the table first. They may be around for the next seven months or so, but once the buses leave South Carolina, they will be gone.
Herman Cain is a condescending jerk who has a bunch of ideas, and absolutely no idea how to make them work in the context of Government. His skill set requires the absolute authority of a business executive, not a contentious Congress. Cain is one bad interview from gone. He's smug, arrogant, and the wrong color to get any traction with the full Republican electorate.
Ron Paul is a great cult figure, but that is exactly what he will remain. His greatest obstacle is that he speaks the language of his cult. The rest of us are sitting there listening to the theme from The Twilight Zone going through our heads. He's not going away, but he is unlikely to connect with more than the ten to fifteen percent of the Republican Party that he already holds.
Rick Santorum has one major problem which will not go away: he was thrown out by the voters in purple Pennsylvania. The Keystone State leans slightly blue, but you would be hard pressed to know it because they will pick some of the most conservative candidates known to God or man. If Santorum could not hold Pennsylvania, how in the world does he expect to hold Ohio or Florida? He should run out of money before long.
Tim Pawlenty has more than one issue which will not go away. He has a competitor from his home state in Michelle Bachmann. He looks enough like Rick Santorum that their respective wives could view the photograph and ask, "What's wrong with this photo of my husband?" By screwing with Romney, he has tinkled in the Rotarian Republicans' corn flakes. And he is almighty dull. He might last until Super Tuesday as the non-Mormon version of Romney.
The scariest moment your Wandering Gentile had while watching the debate was looking at Newt Gingrich and thinking, good Lord, he's the best one up there. His answers were comparatively clear and articulate. He showed a sense of having an idea of how to do things. Hell, Gingrich was Clinton's tough old adversary, and almost worthy of nostalgia.
Newt Gingrich also sounds like a capon being strangled, and Romney does competent equally well.
Mitt Romney looked better. He was clear, concise, articulate, and he is blessed with one of the better speaking voices in a party filled with men who sound as if they are waiting for puberty. He is a little bit less dull than Pawlenty, who remains his closest competitor on the issues. He was the best communicator on the stage on 13 June.
Michelle Bachmann was the other candidate who mattered. With her unofficial declaration as a candidate, she slapped the elephant in the room in the tusks. The elephant in the room is Sarah Palin.
Palin will be the shadow over any candidate on the stage until she formally declares her decision. Her name recognition exceeds that of Mitt Romney. Palin has a national apparatus in place waiting for her to jump in, and by avoiding the early debates, she is finally listening to the wisest advice she could get: Better to be silent and considered to be a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
The last thing Sarah Palin needs right now is a lucky punch from a second tier candidate that lays her candidacy on the ground. The only ones who could get that in might be Gingrich or Santorum. In spite of their being insufferable, the two of them are also much smarter than Governor Palin. Santorum and his ideological twin Bachmann have the most to gain by the absence of Palin. They are similarly paleoconservative in philosophy, and Bachmann has an outside chance of winning the nomination compared to Romney.
What one should watch for in the short term of this most off of off-years follows.
There will be attrition in the very near term of candidates with little or no traction. Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum do not appear to have very strong campaigns and may not make it to Iowa. The heat and light Pawlenty needs to grow in Minnesota will be consumed by Michelle Bachmann competing for much of the same supporters.
Ron Paul's supporters will be a spoiler, and will likely go to ABR, i.e., anyone but Romney.
If Michelle Bachmann gains traction over the next three months, she will serve as Palin's surrogate. That is all Michelle Bachmann will ever be. She lacks adequate name recognition, and she is unlikely to build a national base beyond those who would have written Palin in, anyway.
Look for Palin to get in late, possibly as late as December 1. This keeps her out of debates where she has always done poorly, but leaves her viable in the Iowa caucuses. Michelle Bachmann holds the enthusiasm of Iowa congressman Steve King, which puts Tim Pawlenty at a huge disadvantage.
Mitt Romney will continue as the moderate alternative to Bachmann Palin overdrive. The fatal error that Romney's campaign will make is that he will continue to run to the right. Romney's problem is that he is not credible as a paleoconservative, not if he had a successful career achieving statewide office in Massachusetts. Indeed, the waning support for the tea parties indicates that he would have a chance as a moderate in the general election.
However, in order to get to the general election, one must cater to the party's base. And that base will prefer someone with a better set of credentials as a Conservative, be it Bachmann, or more likely, Palin. Mitt Romney would be well served by campaigning for the Vice-Presidency, because Governor Palin has a history of not bearing up well under scrutiny from the national press.
The future of the Republican Party will be dependent upon the strength of bringing moderates into the fold.
It shall be seen if they remain to do so in 2016.
05 June 2011
30 May 2011
Is Palin Running?
Of course Sarah Palin is running for President.
For all of Palin's vast inadequacies, she does one thing with exceptional competence: campaign. Please do not confuse this with actual capability, intelligence, or the capacity to guide even the smallest jurisdiction in a direction which will lead to prosperity or providence. She runs because she has been running for the last 30 years.
A marathon runner has the physical fitness to be the Center of a soccer team. That runner may not have the ball-handling skills that a pudgy, chain-smoking roofer from Tegucigalpa has, though. Endurance and speed may bring the opportunity for more goals, but without someone with ball-handling skill, all it means is a lot of running around on one end of the field. Not a lot of goals will be scored.
It is time to watch Palin the marathonner. In this realm, she shines. Politics requires endurance. If one tires out the opposition, one can cruise right up to the goal and tap the ball in.
Endurance is one tactic which works a majority of the time. It does not work on the greats, because they have endurance too. Thousands of Soccer players fell trying to wear Pele out, and just when it looked as if Pele were finished, he bicycled the ball into the goal.
Barack Obama is the Pele of American Presidential Politics, maybe with a little bit of Beckham's curving kick to go along for good measure.
In other words, Obama puts points on the scoreboard.
Mrs. Palin is running, and she's looking for the Republican nomination. The one person who will be most drastically affected by this is Mitt Romney, because he will be the frontrunner until maybe ten seconds after Palin officially announces. Michelle Bachmann will be annoyed, but she is not going to do much besides pout. Herman Cain will be a bit fussy, but frankly, he's the wrong color to ever pull more than 15% of the Republican electorate.
The announcement will be later than sooner. This is the slowest period in American politics, and Palin is an adept campaigner. The time will be used to shore up the huge negatives Palin has with independents and moderates, and give a strong look at which of the lackluster candidates for the nomination as to who would make the best Vice-Presidential nominee.
Palin's short list should include, but not be limited to anyone already declared. A guess says that she may pick a running mate from a traditionally Democratic state-Chris Christie, Paul LePage, and Michelle Bachmann would add regional strength without losing appeal to her base in the deep south.
It will be asked if Palin can win the nomination. That question is akin to asking if the sun will rise tomorrow.
Palin, for her lack of goodwill among moderates and independents, is still considered to be "accomplished" by the base of the Republican Party. One other factor is not popping up that may well prove to be the Republicans' downfall in 2012.
It does not appear that the Democrats will present a serious primary challenge to President Obama next year. That leverages a number of primary voters which might be caught in an internecine debate about the direction of the Democratic Party to pursue a challenge which would make for a compelling contrast of ideas and realizations.
No Soccer fan wants to watch meaningless contest. But people who care little for the sport might enjoy a championship match involving the rivalry (think Red Sox and Yankees with violence) between Manchester United and Liverpool.
Democrats have the chance to bring up the most despised rival in Sarah Palin if she is on the ballot.
Republicans have more to lose in the near future from a Palin candidacy than gain. Palin's endorsement, along with identity as part of the Tea Party, managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in at least half a dozen mid-term contests last year. The paleoconservatism of the quasipopulist Tea Party movement found little traction outside of the deep south.
More moderate populations are expressing a deep buyers remorse for movement candidates like Rick Scott, John Kasich, and Scott Walker. A Palin candidacy has the chance to make those contrasts much clearer.
In the long run, Republicans would be better served with a Palin candidacy now as part of a long-term restructuring to bring the party closer to the middle where elections are won and lost. It is territory where Democrats dwelled for the period from late 1979 to the middle of 1992. Without some sort of outreach to the middle, the Republican Party is doomed by demographics as well as policy.
The age and ethnicity of the current Republican voter is well over 40 and overwhelmingly white. Educational attainment is also inferior to that of those preferring Democrats. Income levels and net worth are metrics leading to a conclusion that the Republican party as we know it will not survive much past 2020, if at all.
Republican leadership knows this. This is why a Palin candidacy for the nomination will succeed. An explicit show of support empowers the ability to jettison the component which provides little value to continued success. There is no longer an ability to survive on smaller pieces of pie. They now have to make more pie.
And the fastest way to do that will be to get Sarah Palin away from the oven.
For all of Palin's vast inadequacies, she does one thing with exceptional competence: campaign. Please do not confuse this with actual capability, intelligence, or the capacity to guide even the smallest jurisdiction in a direction which will lead to prosperity or providence. She runs because she has been running for the last 30 years.
A marathon runner has the physical fitness to be the Center of a soccer team. That runner may not have the ball-handling skills that a pudgy, chain-smoking roofer from Tegucigalpa has, though. Endurance and speed may bring the opportunity for more goals, but without someone with ball-handling skill, all it means is a lot of running around on one end of the field. Not a lot of goals will be scored.
It is time to watch Palin the marathonner. In this realm, she shines. Politics requires endurance. If one tires out the opposition, one can cruise right up to the goal and tap the ball in.
Endurance is one tactic which works a majority of the time. It does not work on the greats, because they have endurance too. Thousands of Soccer players fell trying to wear Pele out, and just when it looked as if Pele were finished, he bicycled the ball into the goal.
Barack Obama is the Pele of American Presidential Politics, maybe with a little bit of Beckham's curving kick to go along for good measure.
In other words, Obama puts points on the scoreboard.
Mrs. Palin is running, and she's looking for the Republican nomination. The one person who will be most drastically affected by this is Mitt Romney, because he will be the frontrunner until maybe ten seconds after Palin officially announces. Michelle Bachmann will be annoyed, but she is not going to do much besides pout. Herman Cain will be a bit fussy, but frankly, he's the wrong color to ever pull more than 15% of the Republican electorate.
The announcement will be later than sooner. This is the slowest period in American politics, and Palin is an adept campaigner. The time will be used to shore up the huge negatives Palin has with independents and moderates, and give a strong look at which of the lackluster candidates for the nomination as to who would make the best Vice-Presidential nominee.
Palin's short list should include, but not be limited to anyone already declared. A guess says that she may pick a running mate from a traditionally Democratic state-Chris Christie, Paul LePage, and Michelle Bachmann would add regional strength without losing appeal to her base in the deep south.
It will be asked if Palin can win the nomination. That question is akin to asking if the sun will rise tomorrow.
Palin, for her lack of goodwill among moderates and independents, is still considered to be "accomplished" by the base of the Republican Party. One other factor is not popping up that may well prove to be the Republicans' downfall in 2012.
It does not appear that the Democrats will present a serious primary challenge to President Obama next year. That leverages a number of primary voters which might be caught in an internecine debate about the direction of the Democratic Party to pursue a challenge which would make for a compelling contrast of ideas and realizations.
No Soccer fan wants to watch meaningless contest. But people who care little for the sport might enjoy a championship match involving the rivalry (think Red Sox and Yankees with violence) between Manchester United and Liverpool.
Democrats have the chance to bring up the most despised rival in Sarah Palin if she is on the ballot.
Republicans have more to lose in the near future from a Palin candidacy than gain. Palin's endorsement, along with identity as part of the Tea Party, managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in at least half a dozen mid-term contests last year. The paleoconservatism of the quasipopulist Tea Party movement found little traction outside of the deep south.
More moderate populations are expressing a deep buyers remorse for movement candidates like Rick Scott, John Kasich, and Scott Walker. A Palin candidacy has the chance to make those contrasts much clearer.
In the long run, Republicans would be better served with a Palin candidacy now as part of a long-term restructuring to bring the party closer to the middle where elections are won and lost. It is territory where Democrats dwelled for the period from late 1979 to the middle of 1992. Without some sort of outreach to the middle, the Republican Party is doomed by demographics as well as policy.
The age and ethnicity of the current Republican voter is well over 40 and overwhelmingly white. Educational attainment is also inferior to that of those preferring Democrats. Income levels and net worth are metrics leading to a conclusion that the Republican party as we know it will not survive much past 2020, if at all.
Republican leadership knows this. This is why a Palin candidacy for the nomination will succeed. An explicit show of support empowers the ability to jettison the component which provides little value to continued success. There is no longer an ability to survive on smaller pieces of pie. They now have to make more pie.
And the fastest way to do that will be to get Sarah Palin away from the oven.
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