If one has a Republican friend or acquaintance, be nice and don't make many loud noises this morning. Last night's debacle in New Hampshire was enough to provoke the most committed, teetotaling Republican to down a fifth of Jim Beam, straight and hot.
Let's get the candidates who have absolutely no chance off the table first. They may be around for the next seven months or so, but once the buses leave South Carolina, they will be gone.
Herman Cain is a condescending jerk who has a bunch of ideas, and absolutely no idea how to make them work in the context of Government. His skill set requires the absolute authority of a business executive, not a contentious Congress. Cain is one bad interview from gone. He's smug, arrogant, and the wrong color to get any traction with the full Republican electorate.
Ron Paul is a great cult figure, but that is exactly what he will remain. His greatest obstacle is that he speaks the language of his cult. The rest of us are sitting there listening to the theme from The Twilight Zone going through our heads. He's not going away, but he is unlikely to connect with more than the ten to fifteen percent of the Republican Party that he already holds.
Rick Santorum has one major problem which will not go away: he was thrown out by the voters in purple Pennsylvania. The Keystone State leans slightly blue, but you would be hard pressed to know it because they will pick some of the most conservative candidates known to God or man. If Santorum could not hold Pennsylvania, how in the world does he expect to hold Ohio or Florida? He should run out of money before long.
Tim Pawlenty has more than one issue which will not go away. He has a competitor from his home state in Michelle Bachmann. He looks enough like Rick Santorum that their respective wives could view the photograph and ask, "What's wrong with this photo of my husband?" By screwing with Romney, he has tinkled in the Rotarian Republicans' corn flakes. And he is almighty dull. He might last until Super Tuesday as the non-Mormon version of Romney.
The scariest moment your Wandering Gentile had while watching the debate was looking at Newt Gingrich and thinking, good Lord, he's the best one up there. His answers were comparatively clear and articulate. He showed a sense of having an idea of how to do things. Hell, Gingrich was Clinton's tough old adversary, and almost worthy of nostalgia.
Newt Gingrich also sounds like a capon being strangled, and Romney does competent equally well.
Mitt Romney looked better. He was clear, concise, articulate, and he is blessed with one of the better speaking voices in a party filled with men who sound as if they are waiting for puberty. He is a little bit less dull than Pawlenty, who remains his closest competitor on the issues. He was the best communicator on the stage on 13 June.
Michelle Bachmann was the other candidate who mattered. With her unofficial declaration as a candidate, she slapped the elephant in the room in the tusks. The elephant in the room is Sarah Palin.
Palin will be the shadow over any candidate on the stage until she formally declares her decision. Her name recognition exceeds that of Mitt Romney. Palin has a national apparatus in place waiting for her to jump in, and by avoiding the early debates, she is finally listening to the wisest advice she could get: Better to be silent and considered to be a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
The last thing Sarah Palin needs right now is a lucky punch from a second tier candidate that lays her candidacy on the ground. The only ones who could get that in might be Gingrich or Santorum. In spite of their being insufferable, the two of them are also much smarter than Governor Palin. Santorum and his ideological twin Bachmann have the most to gain by the absence of Palin. They are similarly paleoconservative in philosophy, and Bachmann has an outside chance of winning the nomination compared to Romney.
What one should watch for in the short term of this most off of off-years follows.
There will be attrition in the very near term of candidates with little or no traction. Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum do not appear to have very strong campaigns and may not make it to Iowa. The heat and light Pawlenty needs to grow in Minnesota will be consumed by Michelle Bachmann competing for much of the same supporters.
Ron Paul's supporters will be a spoiler, and will likely go to ABR, i.e., anyone but Romney.
If Michelle Bachmann gains traction over the next three months, she will serve as Palin's surrogate. That is all Michelle Bachmann will ever be. She lacks adequate name recognition, and she is unlikely to build a national base beyond those who would have written Palin in, anyway.
Look for Palin to get in late, possibly as late as December 1. This keeps her out of debates where she has always done poorly, but leaves her viable in the Iowa caucuses. Michelle Bachmann holds the enthusiasm of Iowa congressman Steve King, which puts Tim Pawlenty at a huge disadvantage.
Mitt Romney will continue as the moderate alternative to Bachmann Palin overdrive. The fatal error that Romney's campaign will make is that he will continue to run to the right. Romney's problem is that he is not credible as a paleoconservative, not if he had a successful career achieving statewide office in Massachusetts. Indeed, the waning support for the tea parties indicates that he would have a chance as a moderate in the general election.
However, in order to get to the general election, one must cater to the party's base. And that base will prefer someone with a better set of credentials as a Conservative, be it Bachmann, or more likely, Palin. Mitt Romney would be well served by campaigning for the Vice-Presidency, because Governor Palin has a history of not bearing up well under scrutiny from the national press.
The future of the Republican Party will be dependent upon the strength of bringing moderates into the fold.
It shall be seen if they remain to do so in 2016.
Let's get the candidates who have absolutely no chance off the table first. They may be around for the next seven months or so, but once the buses leave South Carolina, they will be gone.
Herman Cain is a condescending jerk who has a bunch of ideas, and absolutely no idea how to make them work in the context of Government. His skill set requires the absolute authority of a business executive, not a contentious Congress. Cain is one bad interview from gone. He's smug, arrogant, and the wrong color to get any traction with the full Republican electorate.
Ron Paul is a great cult figure, but that is exactly what he will remain. His greatest obstacle is that he speaks the language of his cult. The rest of us are sitting there listening to the theme from The Twilight Zone going through our heads. He's not going away, but he is unlikely to connect with more than the ten to fifteen percent of the Republican Party that he already holds.
Rick Santorum has one major problem which will not go away: he was thrown out by the voters in purple Pennsylvania. The Keystone State leans slightly blue, but you would be hard pressed to know it because they will pick some of the most conservative candidates known to God or man. If Santorum could not hold Pennsylvania, how in the world does he expect to hold Ohio or Florida? He should run out of money before long.
Tim Pawlenty has more than one issue which will not go away. He has a competitor from his home state in Michelle Bachmann. He looks enough like Rick Santorum that their respective wives could view the photograph and ask, "What's wrong with this photo of my husband?" By screwing with Romney, he has tinkled in the Rotarian Republicans' corn flakes. And he is almighty dull. He might last until Super Tuesday as the non-Mormon version of Romney.
The scariest moment your Wandering Gentile had while watching the debate was looking at Newt Gingrich and thinking, good Lord, he's the best one up there. His answers were comparatively clear and articulate. He showed a sense of having an idea of how to do things. Hell, Gingrich was Clinton's tough old adversary, and almost worthy of nostalgia.
Newt Gingrich also sounds like a capon being strangled, and Romney does competent equally well.
Mitt Romney looked better. He was clear, concise, articulate, and he is blessed with one of the better speaking voices in a party filled with men who sound as if they are waiting for puberty. He is a little bit less dull than Pawlenty, who remains his closest competitor on the issues. He was the best communicator on the stage on 13 June.
Michelle Bachmann was the other candidate who mattered. With her unofficial declaration as a candidate, she slapped the elephant in the room in the tusks. The elephant in the room is Sarah Palin.
Palin will be the shadow over any candidate on the stage until she formally declares her decision. Her name recognition exceeds that of Mitt Romney. Palin has a national apparatus in place waiting for her to jump in, and by avoiding the early debates, she is finally listening to the wisest advice she could get: Better to be silent and considered to be a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
The last thing Sarah Palin needs right now is a lucky punch from a second tier candidate that lays her candidacy on the ground. The only ones who could get that in might be Gingrich or Santorum. In spite of their being insufferable, the two of them are also much smarter than Governor Palin. Santorum and his ideological twin Bachmann have the most to gain by the absence of Palin. They are similarly paleoconservative in philosophy, and Bachmann has an outside chance of winning the nomination compared to Romney.
What one should watch for in the short term of this most off of off-years follows.
There will be attrition in the very near term of candidates with little or no traction. Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum do not appear to have very strong campaigns and may not make it to Iowa. The heat and light Pawlenty needs to grow in Minnesota will be consumed by Michelle Bachmann competing for much of the same supporters.
Ron Paul's supporters will be a spoiler, and will likely go to ABR, i.e., anyone but Romney.
If Michelle Bachmann gains traction over the next three months, she will serve as Palin's surrogate. That is all Michelle Bachmann will ever be. She lacks adequate name recognition, and she is unlikely to build a national base beyond those who would have written Palin in, anyway.
Look for Palin to get in late, possibly as late as December 1. This keeps her out of debates where she has always done poorly, but leaves her viable in the Iowa caucuses. Michelle Bachmann holds the enthusiasm of Iowa congressman Steve King, which puts Tim Pawlenty at a huge disadvantage.
Mitt Romney will continue as the moderate alternative to Bachmann Palin overdrive. The fatal error that Romney's campaign will make is that he will continue to run to the right. Romney's problem is that he is not credible as a paleoconservative, not if he had a successful career achieving statewide office in Massachusetts. Indeed, the waning support for the tea parties indicates that he would have a chance as a moderate in the general election.
However, in order to get to the general election, one must cater to the party's base. And that base will prefer someone with a better set of credentials as a Conservative, be it Bachmann, or more likely, Palin. Mitt Romney would be well served by campaigning for the Vice-Presidency, because Governor Palin has a history of not bearing up well under scrutiny from the national press.
The future of the Republican Party will be dependent upon the strength of bringing moderates into the fold.
It shall be seen if they remain to do so in 2016.
