Don't Count Georgia Out, Barack.

Just a couple of short words for our friends who suspect that Georgia may be out of reach for the Obama campaign...

Hang on.

A quick perusal of Georgia voter registrations from the Secretary of State's office coughed up some interesting numbers.

Should turnout in the African-American community remain as high as it was during the primary, with similar proportions going for Senator Obama, that would give Obama between 1.5-1.6 million votes.

In 2004 Bush took Georgia with 1.9 million votes. Should turnout remain constant around 77% of all registered voters in the state of Georgia, the threshold for winning the state would be about 2.4-2.5 million votes.

Here is what people refer to as a "holy $#!+!" moment. If historical models are consistent among white voters, and black voters remain consistent with the primary, Obama only needs about a quarter of the white vote to win Georgia.

For our friends away from the deep south, there is a very real possibility that the Peach State, heart of the Confederacy and (occasionally) painted as a hotbed of white supremacy, may actually send fifteen electoral votes for a black man.

In fact, while that possibility may seem remote to some white observers, only a fool would bet on Georgia staying reliably red in this election cycle. It will not take much for people in middle class homes in the Atlanta and Savannah suburbs, enlisted people in Columbus, Augusta, and Hinesville, and a few halfback seniors (halfbacks being Yankees who moved to Florida, missed having seasons, and went halfway back home) to see that the effect that the Republican administration has had on their investments is effectively a tax paid to people who are unaccountable and cannot be voted out of office.

Add on top of that the modest white liberal population around metropolitan Atlanta, and one can see that there is a possibility that Georgia goes blue with North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia.

John McCain, your bus is here. Destination: Phoenix.

And Governor Palin, you are about to improve your foreign policy experience, because it's a loong walk back to Alaska across Canada. Maybe you shouldn't have sold the plane on eBay, huh?