R for Reason

It is easy to wish that the following had been spoken here first: Hillary Clinton's campaign is finished. When Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) suggested that his superdelegate status would best be used to reflect the will of his constituents, Senator Clinton found the shot with her name on it.

Even those who have deep ideological differences with Representative Lewis acknowledge his integrity. For the Clinton campaign, the blow is fatal. Representative Lewis was among the highest-ranking African-American figures supporting Clinton. The issue is that while Senator Clinton has faced challenges with regard to her ambition owing to her gender, she cannot fully appreciate the challenges that face an African-American on a daily basis.

If one were to dismiss the component of celebrity, Hillary Clinton in an expensive convertible on Sheridan Road in Winnetka, Illinois, is invisible. Barack Obama might gain a bit of attention, and find himself subject to the scrutiny of law enforcement for the crime of being affluent and black.

The idea of such a fate befalling anyone is anathema to your Wandering Gentile, and offensive to anyone who values the rights of free people. Yet, the same situation happens disproportionately to people in minority communities. If it happens once, then that occurrence is too many.

Senator Clinton's lack of experience as someone in a minority community is the beginning of her problems. If one hypothesizes a Hillary Cilnton nomination, the question of a dispute regarding a "stolen" nomination is not a question of if it would happen, but rather how much smoke will come off the paper filing suit against the Democratic party.

In 2000, the Bush-Gore debacle effectively crippled the Democratic party for six years. The Obama campaign appears unlikely to behave like the Gore campaign did, but the effect of a Clinton nomination would be devastating to the Democrats. It doesn't require the services of the Amazing Kreskin to foresee African-American voters, the strongest and most consistent component of the Democratic coalition, sitting on their hands because they judge the nominee to be illegitimate.

Instantly, Hillary Clinton is remade as George Corley Wallace redux. What a blast for Republicans! Hillary as bona fide racist! Take a few minutes to hear that potshot. With Obama out of the campaign, watch it catch Hillary in the gut.

Disenfranchised black voters would instantly be faced with two choices-a vote for McCain, or standing back. There might be a half-hearted call for unity from Obama, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton, but most of it would be posturing. Taking Obama out of the political equation, or worse, making him Vice-President, the job John Nance Garner compared to a bucket of warm spit, assures the Clinton candidacy of the respect reserved for a Backstreet Boys cassette.

Obama does not have the same concern when it comes to the feminist vote. While feminists have been a strong constituency for the Dems, their relative proportion and standing in the party pales in comparison to African-Americans. On top of the comparitive lack of clout, Obama's position is enhanced by early embrace from Oprah Winfrey, the strength of Mrs. Obama as a spokesperson for her husband, and his ace in the hole.

Senator Obama's ace in the hole is none other than his mother. His unique situation includes having been raised by a white woman born in the 1940s, and being able to draw from that experience. It would be foolish to dismiss Obama's ability to communicate with and ultimately govern a population that would include his mother's concerns. Hillary Clinton may be a white woman born in the forties, but she has no corresponding experience with a biracial or black person born at the dawn of the Kennedy administration.

Obama would do well to directly address his mother's concerns, despite her absence. A Clinton campaign in the general election may include address of concerns in the African-American community, to a hostile audience.

A McCain campaign could make a play for Latino voters in the general election. Already, moderate and democratic-leaning independents express a preference for Senator McCain. It would not be a long step for him to reach out for a Latino population that is overwhelmingly Catholic and extremely socially conservative at its fundament.

McCain's candidacy against Clinton includes a potent appeal to military veterans, who are more well-represented in the Latino population as opposed to the broader American populace. Hillary Clinton as opponent lights a fire under the Republican electorate the likes of which you have never seen. On top of everything else, Senator Clinton's negative rating of nearly 50% would grow spectacularly in a divisive nomination fight, sending disaffected Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to McCain.

Should Senator Clinton's campaign manage to survive both Obama and McCain, again it doesn't require Kreskin to anticipate a divided party, spectacular investigations, and the loss of both houses in 2010 if not 2008. She also reinvigorates the voices of conservative talk radio, and faces instant lame-duck status owing to her high negatives.

But nobody is foolish enough to expect that, except the Clinton campaign. What would happen is a McCain presidency which is likely to prove to be a continuation of the policies of the current administration. That means conservative judges,and very likely the revocation of some socially liberal policies Democrats hold dear.

Don't blame the messenger. Senator Clinton is in dire need of a message.