It is easy to wish that the following had been spoken here first: Hillary Clinton's campaign is finished. When Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) suggested that his superdelegate status would best be used to reflect the will of his constituents, Senator Clinton found the shot with her name on it.
Even those who have deep ideological differences with Representative Lewis acknowledge his integrity. For the Clinton campaign, the blow is fatal. Representative Lewis was among the highest-ranking African-American figures supporting Clinton. The issue is that while Senator Clinton has faced challenges with regard to her ambition owing to her gender, she cannot fully appreciate the challenges that face an African-American on a daily basis.
If one were to dismiss the component of celebrity, Hillary Clinton in an expensive convertible on Sheridan Road in Winnetka, Illinois, is invisible. Barack Obama might gain a bit of attention, and find himself subject to the scrutiny of law enforcement for the crime of being affluent and black.
The idea of such a fate befalling anyone is anathema to your Wandering Gentile, and offensive to anyone who values the rights of free people. Yet, the same situation happens disproportionately to people in minority communities. If it happens once, then that occurrence is too many.
Senator Clinton's lack of experience as someone in a minority community is the beginning of her problems. If one hypothesizes a Hillary Cilnton nomination, the question of a dispute regarding a "stolen" nomination is not a question of if it would happen, but rather how much smoke will come off the paper filing suit against the Democratic party.
In 2000, the Bush-Gore debacle effectively crippled the Democratic party for six years. The Obama campaign appears unlikely to behave like the Gore campaign did, but the effect of a Clinton nomination would be devastating to the Democrats. It doesn't require the services of the Amazing Kreskin to foresee African-American voters, the strongest and most consistent component of the Democratic coalition, sitting on their hands because they judge the nominee to be illegitimate.
Instantly, Hillary Clinton is remade as George Corley Wallace redux. What a blast for Republicans! Hillary as bona fide racist! Take a few minutes to hear that potshot. With Obama out of the campaign, watch it catch Hillary in the gut.
Disenfranchised black voters would instantly be faced with two choices-a vote for McCain, or standing back. There might be a half-hearted call for unity from Obama, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton, but most of it would be posturing. Taking Obama out of the political equation, or worse, making him Vice-President, the job John Nance Garner compared to a bucket of warm spit, assures the Clinton candidacy of the respect reserved for a Backstreet Boys cassette.
Obama does not have the same concern when it comes to the feminist vote. While feminists have been a strong constituency for the Dems, their relative proportion and standing in the party pales in comparison to African-Americans. On top of the comparitive lack of clout, Obama's position is enhanced by early embrace from Oprah Winfrey, the strength of Mrs. Obama as a spokesperson for her husband, and his ace in the hole.
Senator Obama's ace in the hole is none other than his mother. His unique situation includes having been raised by a white woman born in the 1940s, and being able to draw from that experience. It would be foolish to dismiss Obama's ability to communicate with and ultimately govern a population that would include his mother's concerns. Hillary Clinton may be a white woman born in the forties, but she has no corresponding experience with a biracial or black person born at the dawn of the Kennedy administration.
Obama would do well to directly address his mother's concerns, despite her absence. A Clinton campaign in the general election may include address of concerns in the African-American community, to a hostile audience.
A McCain campaign could make a play for Latino voters in the general election. Already, moderate and democratic-leaning independents express a preference for Senator McCain. It would not be a long step for him to reach out for a Latino population that is overwhelmingly Catholic and extremely socially conservative at its fundament.
McCain's candidacy against Clinton includes a potent appeal to military veterans, who are more well-represented in the Latino population as opposed to the broader American populace. Hillary Clinton as opponent lights a fire under the Republican electorate the likes of which you have never seen. On top of everything else, Senator Clinton's negative rating of nearly 50% would grow spectacularly in a divisive nomination fight, sending disaffected Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to McCain.
Should Senator Clinton's campaign manage to survive both Obama and McCain, again it doesn't require Kreskin to anticipate a divided party, spectacular investigations, and the loss of both houses in 2010 if not 2008. She also reinvigorates the voices of conservative talk radio, and faces instant lame-duck status owing to her high negatives.
But nobody is foolish enough to expect that, except the Clinton campaign. What would happen is a McCain presidency which is likely to prove to be a continuation of the policies of the current administration. That means conservative judges,and very likely the revocation of some socially liberal policies Democrats hold dear.
Don't blame the messenger. Senator Clinton is in dire need of a message.
15 February 2008
08 February 2008
That was quick!
That primary season went faster than Britney Spears to an embarassing situation. In what seems like two weeks, the slates are down to a presumptive nominee and a two person celebrity death match. Oh, nineteen days...that's a whole lot more than two weeks.
The Republicans have done the smartest things in the last couple of news cycles. Losing Romney was the best thing for the GOP to have happen. His presentation left a lot to be desired. Romney's Achilles Heel was front-loading his discourse with problems as opposed to solutions, and allowing the voter to infer the problem.
When Romney articulated the problem before articulating the solution, he conveyed an image of dour intransigence, which was fundamentally opposed to his record in public service. The honestly intransigent Huckabee and McCain managed to appear as consistent through a focus upon their more human characters.
The funny thing about Huckabee is that he seems to be genuinely decent while spewing some of the most hateful rhetoric in the campaign. However, one may infer his nature as being more kind owing to the response he gave to Romney during one of the debates..."I think we're a better country than that," defending his stance on in-state tuition for students who were brought to Arkansas without documents.
This may be a good point for President Bush to take the immigration plate off the table. Indeed, it may be the only hope that his party has.
Bush has the power to make a presidential pardon, which could move the issue off Senator McCain's back. Were Bush to offer a pardon to undocumented aliens, he could trump the hope of a broad-based amnesty from the Democrats.
This is a little Wizard of Oz for some people, but Bush could offer a conditional pardon for the crime of jumping the border, with a date of arrival, a criminal assessment, and a US citizen willing to vouch for the individual case. He requests a bill approving the placement of personnel in the Customs and Immigration Service whose first mission is the processing of paperwork before being placed on patrol on the border. An executive order could direct the DHS to process all applications under the conditional pardon.
Then anything that messes up in Congress could be blamed on the Democrats. Of course, doing such would require courage, which seems to be in limited supply in the Bush Administration, and precludes progress until a change in administration.
The Hillary Clinton candidacy is turning into a celebrity train wreck par excellence. All she needs to make things complete is an endorsement from Lindsay Lohan. Hillary's broke, out of momentum, and under the delusion that she can win a national election. All it's going to take is for Barack Obama to run the table in the next couple of weeks for us to see her have a total meltdown.
Obama is poised to run the table, too. He's been terrific in caucuses, and we have a few of those coming up in the next couple of weeks. Obama could not wish for a better selection of primaries, Maryland, DC, Virginia, and Louisiana have robust African-American populations and he has managed to connect with voters beyond the African-American community.
But there is a danger here as well. The early resolution of the Republican contest has put a population of Republicans into play as spoilers. It is not entirely unbelieveable to forsee people of ill will and bad intent moving to the Democratic primaries and casting votes for Clinton as the less electable candidate.
Time still remains for that scenario in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Democrats would be well advised to lobby Senator Clinton for withdrawal. The question of whether America is ready for a candidate with a non-traditional background has been answered, and the answer is that we are ready for an outstanding candidate from anywhere.
Mrs. Clinton may be disposed to blame her rejection on her gender. That is the cheap cop-out. The fact is that America is unlikely to ever be ready for Mrs. Clinton. Oprah Winfrey could campaign successfully on her own behalf if she chose to, as could Condoleeza Rice. The issue is not so much what is beyond a candidate's control (such as race or gender) as what the candidate can control (such as presentation.)
Senator Clinton's arguments for experience fall away. Richard Nixon was a congressman and a Vice President before being elected President. Experience is no guarantee of a great Chief Executive.
However, Senator Clinton is in a position to open the doors for her party if she steps back from a presidential campaign. She could be in a position of power broker in Washington, and able to wield more authority than she could as president owing to her connections and time in the Senate. How many terms does Ted Kennedy have left in him? That is a question that foresees a void that Hillary could own.
The longer she stands and allows the Republicans to rally and regroup while the Democratic house is divided, the more she hurts her position in her party, and the party's opportunity to succeed in November.
From Hillary's chaos comes Republicans giving orders.
The Republicans have done the smartest things in the last couple of news cycles. Losing Romney was the best thing for the GOP to have happen. His presentation left a lot to be desired. Romney's Achilles Heel was front-loading his discourse with problems as opposed to solutions, and allowing the voter to infer the problem.
When Romney articulated the problem before articulating the solution, he conveyed an image of dour intransigence, which was fundamentally opposed to his record in public service. The honestly intransigent Huckabee and McCain managed to appear as consistent through a focus upon their more human characters.
The funny thing about Huckabee is that he seems to be genuinely decent while spewing some of the most hateful rhetoric in the campaign. However, one may infer his nature as being more kind owing to the response he gave to Romney during one of the debates..."I think we're a better country than that," defending his stance on in-state tuition for students who were brought to Arkansas without documents.
This may be a good point for President Bush to take the immigration plate off the table. Indeed, it may be the only hope that his party has.
Bush has the power to make a presidential pardon, which could move the issue off Senator McCain's back. Were Bush to offer a pardon to undocumented aliens, he could trump the hope of a broad-based amnesty from the Democrats.
This is a little Wizard of Oz for some people, but Bush could offer a conditional pardon for the crime of jumping the border, with a date of arrival, a criminal assessment, and a US citizen willing to vouch for the individual case. He requests a bill approving the placement of personnel in the Customs and Immigration Service whose first mission is the processing of paperwork before being placed on patrol on the border. An executive order could direct the DHS to process all applications under the conditional pardon.
Then anything that messes up in Congress could be blamed on the Democrats. Of course, doing such would require courage, which seems to be in limited supply in the Bush Administration, and precludes progress until a change in administration.
The Hillary Clinton candidacy is turning into a celebrity train wreck par excellence. All she needs to make things complete is an endorsement from Lindsay Lohan. Hillary's broke, out of momentum, and under the delusion that she can win a national election. All it's going to take is for Barack Obama to run the table in the next couple of weeks for us to see her have a total meltdown.
Obama is poised to run the table, too. He's been terrific in caucuses, and we have a few of those coming up in the next couple of weeks. Obama could not wish for a better selection of primaries, Maryland, DC, Virginia, and Louisiana have robust African-American populations and he has managed to connect with voters beyond the African-American community.
But there is a danger here as well. The early resolution of the Republican contest has put a population of Republicans into play as spoilers. It is not entirely unbelieveable to forsee people of ill will and bad intent moving to the Democratic primaries and casting votes for Clinton as the less electable candidate.
Time still remains for that scenario in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Democrats would be well advised to lobby Senator Clinton for withdrawal. The question of whether America is ready for a candidate with a non-traditional background has been answered, and the answer is that we are ready for an outstanding candidate from anywhere.
Mrs. Clinton may be disposed to blame her rejection on her gender. That is the cheap cop-out. The fact is that America is unlikely to ever be ready for Mrs. Clinton. Oprah Winfrey could campaign successfully on her own behalf if she chose to, as could Condoleeza Rice. The issue is not so much what is beyond a candidate's control (such as race or gender) as what the candidate can control (such as presentation.)
Senator Clinton's arguments for experience fall away. Richard Nixon was a congressman and a Vice President before being elected President. Experience is no guarantee of a great Chief Executive.
However, Senator Clinton is in a position to open the doors for her party if she steps back from a presidential campaign. She could be in a position of power broker in Washington, and able to wield more authority than she could as president owing to her connections and time in the Senate. How many terms does Ted Kennedy have left in him? That is a question that foresees a void that Hillary could own.
The longer she stands and allows the Republicans to rally and regroup while the Democratic house is divided, the more she hurts her position in her party, and the party's opportunity to succeed in November.
From Hillary's chaos comes Republicans giving orders.
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